Fears of Cold War Resurface in the Battle for Syria

By: Yasmine Bassily and Noura Shibl
@YasmineBassily @NouraShibl

With a rise in tension between the world’s major global powers, there are many who fear a resurgence of the Cold War politics that put the USA and Russia at loggerheads.

Two lectures were held to discuss Russia’s strategies in relation to the Middle East and the US.

The first lecture, held on October 10, featured former Egyptian Ambassador to Greece and AUC political economy professor Magda Shahin, and former Egyptian ambassador to Russia and Adjunct Professor at the School of Global Affairs and Public Policy (GAPP) Reda Shehata.

The second lecture was given by Shehata in the Middle East Studies Center at AUC on October 12.

Russia’s direct military intervention in Syria, which initially consisted of airstrikes, started in the fall of 2015 after an official request by the Syrian government and the president Bashar Al Assad.

“We don’t like both, we don’t dislike both,” Shehata said, as he made it clear that their goal was to analyze the policies of the US and Russia rather than condemn or praise them.

Shehata used the Russian national security strategy document until the year 2020 to analyze Moscow’s foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East.

This document postulates that the United Nations (UN) Security Council is considered to be a focal point of any stable system in the international relations.

“The Security Council allows Russia to maintain its very independent and often active role and stand in shaping the policies, regarding most crucial crises affecting the world,” Shehata said.

Shehata also pointed to the UN Charter’s Article 51, which states that “nothing should stop the right of individual or collective selfdefense in case an armed attack against a member of the UN takes place” as proof that Russia is acting within international law.

“The Russian perspective is that it [carrying out airstrikes in Syria] was a legitimate response to a legitimate request,” Shehata told The Caravan.

The UN General Assembly (GA) is significant as a policymaking and representative organ of the UN, as it allows a forum for the 193 Member States to discuss international issues.

It also sets the standard and codes of international law.

Shehata described the souring relations between Russia and the US as a “cold war”. In Putin’s speech last year at the UN, he criticized America’s position as a superpower, claiming it has failed over the past 25 years.

“Some might call it Cold War revisited, or a new Cold War. It is [one],” said Shehata.

The term ‘Cold War’ refers to a post-World War II era of political tension between the US, NATO and other allies, on the one hand, and the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries, on the other.

The two countries did not engage in a direct war but both supported major regional wars.

Shehata believes that Russia’s motivations are to support Assad and to deter the Islamist opposition’s armed forces.

For Russia, its military intervention is a chance to form a coalition with Syria’s allies, including Iran, Iraq Shiites, Hezbollah and the wider Middle East.

This alliance forms a new counter-coalition against the US and Europe. In essence, Russia, through Syria, could reconfigure its worldwide posture as a global power, Shehata says.

If Russia loses its battle in Syria, it could be a prelude to losing the Northern Caucasus and regional republics that previously attempted to gain independence.

“They [Russia] can stay for quite a long time in Syria, but could they sustain war losses?” Shehata asked.

According to Political Science Assistant Professor Kareem Kamel, US-Russian tension has
not reached the extent of starting a third world war.

“Russia is trying to flex its muscles in different parts of the world; it fears containment…but I do not believe that there is this chance, any kind of chance, for a direct confrontation,” Kamel told The Caravan.

He said that Washington does not view Assad as a legitimate president to begin with and hold the view that the rebellion to topple him is more representative of the popular will of the Syrian people.

Shahin, meanwhile, focused on analyzing the policies of the US as she derived her analysis mainly from Obama’s final GA speech in the UN that on September 20.

While focusing on human rights and democracy, Obama still managed to stress during his speech his criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Moscow’s foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East.