Analysis: The New Middle East Map is Burning out of Control

• By: Sara Fahmy – Editor

Israel’s military objectives of the past year have made no consideration for red lines, particularly when it comes to the humanitarian toll inflicted,whether collateral or direct, or the loss of stature around the world.

But by expanding the theater of war to include Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and potentially Iran, Israel has shown that they’ve crossed a threshold from which they can’t retreat.

The latest chapter in the tragedy of the Middle East falling into crisis began shortly before the first anniversary of Israel’s war on Gaza when Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in his underground hideout. Although assassinations often plague the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, this one certainly has quite the foreboding message.

This action was meant to weaken Hezbollah by eliminating its senior leaders, yet it goes beyond that. At the time of writing, the Middle East is being reshaped as the skies lights up with rocket fire. Israel began the attack against Hezbollah a couple of weeks ago when over a thousand walkie-talkies and pagers used by the Iran-backed group exploded killing and injuring many.

Assistant Professor of Political Science Sean Lee explained that Israel meant to “decapitate” the organization.

“For the organization, the loss of Hassan Nasrallah will be a big blow,” Lee said.

However, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib in an early October interview with CNN came out and said that an agreement for a 21-day ceasefire by Hezbollah’s head had been reached shortly before he was killed.

Lee explained that this could mean that the Israeli government doesn’t want a ceasefire, but rather wants a self-justifying reason to neutralize Hezbollah.

He added that a similar approach may have been executed with the assassination of Hamas’ leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last July.

“He was negotiating with Israel, Egypt, and Qatar, so that might also be linked,” said Lee.

Some in the region believe the assassinations and campaigns in Lebanon and Gaza are part of state expansionism, not caring about the consequences or collateral damage till it achieves its peak securitization plan by eliminating all of the “regional” threats.

But on how many fronts can the Israeli military engage before it breaks?

Hamas is still firing missiles into Israeli cities and says it is hunkering down for a war of attrition, bleeding Israel of men and materiel.

According to CNN, on the first day of land operations in Southern Lebanon, Hezbollah defenders killed eight Israeli soldiers and wounded dozens.

The Guardian says Israel is facing a “reality check” in their on-ground combat. While they have control over the skies with their iron dome and air raids, they are still greatly lacking in ground warfare. Both Hezbollah and Iran are aiming to wear down the Israeli forces bit by bit.

Iran responded to Nasrallah’s killing and the assassination of Iranian commanders in Beirut by launching over 180 missiles into Israeli territory, nearly overwhelming Israel’s Sky Dome defense network.

A regional war is seemingly on the horizon according to multiple experts such as the Middle-East Eye and Al Jazeera. Israel is quite literally playing with fire with every “retaliatory” action it takes these coming days. Already, according to the Washington Post, 100,00 Israelis had to evacuate their homes in the north of the country due to the barrage of missiles incoming from Lebanon.

Israel’s continued attacks on Iran’s proxies will be detrimental to the region, as they might hold the key to unlocking a regional war. A substantial retaliatory attack against Iran might happen any day now, it is merely a matter of time.

Iran’s Foreign Minister gave an ominous warning in an on-screen speech that Israel should remain wary of triggering their Islamic Republic because for each attack, they will have a more formidable response.

“If they (Israel) choose a big escalation in Iran, especially if they target the energy sector that could have really big repercussions for the region and the world,” said Lee.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for key figures in both Israel and Palestine back in July. Although these arrests are semi-impossible to go through with because while they restrict Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s movements, he is still free in the US and Israel. Perhaps, the ICC has no clout right now.

Lee explained that despite Israel not facing the consequences due to US backing with military and diplomatic support, he insists that this has been a delegitimizing year for Israel and the Zionist project generally.

“I would say that, domestically, if the question of Israel becomes a more decisive issue which has become the case, we can’t assume that American support for Israel will last forever,” he said.

For the time being, Netanyahu is enjoying a surge in the polls because of the decapitation strikes in Lebanon.

“There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach,” he forewarned in a late September speech.

One thing is for sure though, a map of the Middle East in the immediate future will look drastically different.

In the meantime, Netanyahu and Israel are losing popularity globally, something prescient Israeli analysts say will be to the country’s disadvantage.

Writing in the Israeli daily Haaretz, former Israeli diplomat Alon Pinkas says that history will not judge Netanyahu as the valiant warrior fighting terrorism.

“Instead, it will regard him as the inept politician who blindly led Israel to October 7 and all the debacle that followed.”